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A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$275.22

275 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.02%

EV $247.76 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

167.48%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

75.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 182

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

-0.5%510.5%1021.5%

Small sample. 4 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	4	167.48%±853.6	—	odds
30d	4	167.48%±853.6	—	odds
All	4	167.48%±853.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 1,000	$68K 68,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	27.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$26.8K 26,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000	$14.5K 14,457 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$9,104 9,104 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 667	$7,228 7,228 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 500	$3,980 3,980 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 333	$2,190 2,190 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$1,765 1,765 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.6%	1	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$1,639 1,639 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 113	$975 975 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 11	$290 290 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.5%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	13.4%	$147 147 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.0%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	16.3%	$92.00 92 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.0%	0	0.7	—
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink	17.2%	$49.57 49.57 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	16.8%	$29.63 29.63 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	2	0.7	—
Souvenir FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9	11.5%	$19.88 19.88 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	12.9%	$14.51 14.51 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	0	0.5	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1211, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$275275 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,7651,765 CSGOBIG_COIN6.41x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$275275 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.6329.63 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x2d

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$275275 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,7651,765 CSGOBIG_COIN6.41x3d

AK-47 | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$275275 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.6329.63 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x3d

Souvenir FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$275275 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.8819.88 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$275	90.02%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.7%extraordinary 0.1%covert 31.8%covert knife 9.0%pink 17.2%mil spec 16.8%#B0C3D9 11.5%Rare 12.9%best hit $1,765 (6.41x)