Lucky Strike
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$95.33
95.33 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.03%
EV $85.83 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
31.10%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
20.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1216, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covertRassel$95.3395.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$17.6817.68 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x
StatTrak™ AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink$95.3395.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$58.8958.89 CSGOBIG_COIN0.62x
USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$95.3395.33 CSGOBIG_COIN$24.3524.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.03%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $95.33 | 90.03% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 54.8%legendary 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%classified 0.1%rare 0.3%#EB4B4B 0.5%pink 13.9%restricted 30.2%best hit —