Thorns
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$136.18
136 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $119.16 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
269.31%
22 openings, odds method
Variance
92.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 22 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1223, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4B$136136 CSGOBIG_COIN$7,8887,888 CSGOBIG_COIN57.93x
Latest dropsnewest first
Vortigaunt Pinpin · exoticKICK/RobZnnnCS (35.000$+ LB´s)$136136 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.578.57 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $136 | 87.50% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%remarkable 0.0%contraband 0.0%covert 5.8%#EB4B4B 0.2%rare 1.0%classified 3.0%exotic 90.0%best hit $7,888 (57.93x)