Celestial

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.52

3.52 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.19%

EV $3.17 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.45%

28 openings, odds method

Variance

304.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

11 openings · below min

30 days

28 openings · below min

since tracking started

28 openings · below min

-0.5%1007.3%2015.0%

Small sample. 28 openings and 3.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	40.72%±1973.9	—	odds
7d	11	67.67%±1030.8	—	odds
30d	28	89.45%±646.1	—	odds
All	28	89.45%±646.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,932 5,932 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 5,000	$1,074 1,074 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,054	$136 136 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 79	$19.79 19.79 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.9%	1	0.4	—
Sticker \| Zyphon (Gold) \| Rio 2022sticker · Ancient	11.8%	$7.05 7.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	26.2%	6	3.3	1.82×
SG 553 \| Barricade (Factory New)weapon · Common	16.4%	$2.83 2.83 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.6%	3	4.6	0.65×
Sticker \| Gambit Gaming (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021sticker · #8847FF	17.3%	$1.77 1.77 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.7%	5	4.9	1.03×
Tec-9 \| Ossified (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	17.4%	$1.02 1.02 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.6%	4	4.9	0.82×
SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	15.4%	$0.75 0.75 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.6%	2	4.3	0.46×
Sticker \| Ethan \| Berlin 2019sticker · #4B69FF	20.3%	$0.45 0.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	7	5.7	1.23×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1232, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SG 553 | Barricade (Factory New)weapon · Common$3.523.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.832.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.80x9h

Sticker | Ethan | Berlin 2019sticker · #4B69FF$3.523.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.450.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x9h

Tec-9 | Ossified (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.523.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.021.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.29x9h

Sticker | Zyphon (Gold) | Rio 2022sticker · Ancient$3.523.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.057.05 CSGOBIG_COIN2.00x1d

Sticker | Gambit Gaming (Holo) | Stockholm 2021sticker · #8847FF$3.523.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.771.77 CSGOBIG_COIN0.50x1d

Sticker | Zyphon (Gold) | Rio 2022sticker · Ancient$3.523.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.057.05 CSGOBIG_COIN2.00x1d

Sticker | Ethan | Berlin 2019sticker · #4B69FF$3.523.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.450.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x1d

Tec-9 | Ossified (Factory New)weapon · mil specCalz$3.523.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.021.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.29x1d

Sticker | Gambit Gaming (Holo) | Stockholm 2021sticker · #8847FFCalz$3.523.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.771.77 CSGOBIG_COIN0.50x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.19%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$3.52	90.19%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%covert knife 0.1%classified 1.3%Ancient 11.8%Common 16.4%#8847FF 17.3%mil spec 17.4%milspec 15.4%#4B69FF 20.3%best hit —