Excess Earnings

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$600.00

600 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $540.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

6.33%

5 openings, odds method

Variance

41.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

5 openings · below min

30 days

5 openings · below min

since tracking started

5 openings · below min

-0.5%284.5%569.5%

Small sample. 5 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	5	6.33%±562.7	—	odds
30d	5	6.33%±562.7	—	odds
All	5	6.33%±562.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 400	$56K 56,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	25.9%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 400	$42K 42,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$21.5K 21,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$9,330 9,330 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.6%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 12	$1,249 1,249 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.1%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 35	$369 369 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	13.7%	$92.82 92.82 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	1	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$56.80 56.8 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas \| Cologne 2014sticker · violet	11.0%	$31.63 31.63 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	1	0.5	—
Sticker \| Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary	16.4%	$25.96 25.96 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	2	0.8	—
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	21.8%	$13.49 13.49 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	1	1.1	0.92×
Sticker \| XANTARES \| Boston 2018sticker · #4B69FF	19.1%	$4.87 4.87 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	0	1.0	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=251, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert$600600 CSGOBIG_COIN$92.8292.82 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x6d

Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary$600600 CSGOBIG_COIN$25.9625.96 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x6d

Sticker | Team Dignitas | Cologne 2014sticker · violet$600600 CSGOBIG_COIN$31.6331.63 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x6d

Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary$600600 CSGOBIG_COIN$25.9625.96 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x6d

Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$600600 CSGOBIG_COIN$13.4913.49 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$600	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.2%Covert 8.2%#EB4B4B 2.8%classified 5.5%violet 11.0%extraordinary 16.4%restricted 21.8%#4B69FF 19.1%best hit —