Exquisite Earnings
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.00
5 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $4.50 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.67%
76 openings, odds method
Variance
196.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 76 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 76 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=261, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | DeadFox | Katowice 2019sticker · #4B69FFRumanusky$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.300.3 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x
Sealed Graffiti | Little Bock (Jungle Green)graffiti · #B0C3D9$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.320.32 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x
Sealed Graffiti | Little Bock (Jungle Green)graffiti · #B0C3D9$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.320.32 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x
Sealed Graffiti | Kiss (Dust Brown)graffiti · Base Gradeavgdegen$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.340.34 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x
Sealed Graffiti | Kiss (Dust Brown)graffiti · Base Grade$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.340.34 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$46.2946.29 CSGOBIG_COIN9.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.00 | 89.99% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 5.7%#4B69FF 19.5%restricted 27.7%Base Grade 13.9%#B0C3D9 33.2%best hit —