Poseidon's Realm
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$475.00
475 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $427.50 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
3.08%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
248.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 400
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=280, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$475475 CSGOBIG_COIN$16.8416.84 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
PP-Bizon | Seabird (Factory New)weapon · CommonPOTATO$475475 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.132.13 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SG 553 | Waves Perforated (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$475475 CSGOBIG_COIN$24.9524.95 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $475 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 0.3%classified 4.5%Legendary 13.6%Consumer Grade 7.6%covert 19.6%remarkable 6.0%Common 31.7%#B0C3D9 15.1%#4b69ff 1.5%best hit —