Cheap Shot
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.50
0.5 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.40%
EV $0.45 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
2.55%
22 openings, odds method
Variance
3074.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 22 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 20,000 | $3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 33.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20,000 | $2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 22.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 13,333 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG_COIN | 16.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 8,000 | $500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 5,000 | $250 250 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9 | 45.0% | $0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.0% | 6 | 9.9 | 0.61× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9 | 55.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.2% | 16 | 12.1 | 1.32× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=309, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9$0.500.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9$0.500.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9$0.500.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9$0.500.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9$0.500.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9Traumazard$0.500.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.020.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$0.500.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.020.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9$0.500.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9$0.500.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9$0.500.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.50 | 90.40% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%epic 0.0%#B0C3D9 100.0%best hit —