10% Black Pearl
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$641.00
641 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $576.90 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.16%
14 openings, odds method
Variance
15.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 14 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=338, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$641641 CSGOBIG_COIN$8,0008,000 CSGOBIG_COIN12.48x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $641 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 1.0%covert 9.0%high 90.0%best hit $8,000 (12.48x)