Rags To Riches
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$65.32
65.32 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $58.79 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
22.24%
42 openings, odds method
Variance
76.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 42 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 1,000 | $13.9K 13,860 CSGOBIG_COIN | 23.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $5,800 5,800 CSGOBIG_COIN | 19.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 143 | $3,150 3,150 CSGOBIG_COIN | 37.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $48.00 48 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.7% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.04× |
| P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 11.0% | $25.00 25 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.7% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× |
| Glock-18 | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted | 15.0% | $15.00 15 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.8% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.79× |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 17.0% | $9.00 9 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.6% | 10 | 7.1 | 1.40× |
| FAMAS | Pulse (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 21.0% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.8% | 9 | 8.8 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | Vortigaunt (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 17.0% | $2.00 2 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.6% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.84× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 11.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.43× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=353, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$65.3265.32 CSGOBIG_COIN$48.0048 CSGOBIG_COIN0.73x
Glock-18 | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted$65.3265.32 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.0015 CSGOBIG_COIN0.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $65.32 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.0%classified 11.0%Restricted 15.0%red 17.0%restricted 21.0%Mythical 17.0%consumer 11.0%best hit —