The Reserve
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5,321.88
5,322 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $4,789.70 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
45.10%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
9.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=364, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5,322 | 90.00% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 0.7%legendary 2.5%remarkable 18.0%extraordinary 1.3%covert 77.5%best hit $2,400 (0.45x)