Talon Twister

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$199.99

200 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $179.99 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

41.72%

18 openings, odds method

Variance

13.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

18 openings · below min

30 days

18 openings · below min

since tracking started

18 openings · below min

-0.5%272.5%545.5%

Small sample. 18 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	187.55%±357.2	—	odds
7d	18	41.72%±168.4	—	odds
30d	18	41.72%±168.4	—	odds
All	18	41.72%±168.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$4,500 4,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	25.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$3,900 3,900 CSGOBIG_COIN	21.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 100	$3,400 3,400 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 100	$2,400 2,400 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 100	$1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$900 900 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 100	$550 550 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$365 365 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$275 275 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	90.0%	$0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	17	16.2	1.05×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=386, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$200200 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,5001,500 CSGOBIG_COIN7.50x18h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$200200 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,5001,500 CSGOBIG_COIN7.50x18h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$200200 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x18h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$200200 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$200	90.00%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.0%legendary 1.0%epic 1.0%gold 1.0%covert knife 3.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $1,500 (7.50x)