Haven

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$35.46

35.46 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $31.91 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

250.37%

18 openings, odds method

Variance

35.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 51

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

17 openings · below min

30 days

18 openings · below min

since tracking started

18 openings · below min

-0.5%818.8%1638.0%

Small sample. 18 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	1057.55%±580.0	—	odds
7d	17	264.60%±281.3	—	odds
30d	18	250.37%±273.4	—	odds
All	18	250.37%±273.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$11.2K 11,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,000	$5,500 5,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,000	$2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.1%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$800 800 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$170 170 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 33	$80.00 80 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.5%	0	0.5	—
ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Packagecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 20	$44.00 44 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.9%	1	0.9	—
Tec-9 \| Hades (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$25.00 25 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	17.0%	$12.00 12 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.4%	3	3.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	25.0%	$3.00 3 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	6	4.5	1.33×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	39.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	7	7.0	1.00×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=412, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$35.4635.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,5001,500 CSGOBIG_COIN42.30x2h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$35.4635.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2h

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$35.4635.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,5001,500 CSGOBIG_COIN42.30x2h

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$35.4635.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$35.4635.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN0.34x1d

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$35.4635.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$35.4635.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.003 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x2d

ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Packagecontainer · Base Grade$35.4635.46 CSGOBIG_COIN$44.0044 CSGOBIG_COIN1.24x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$35.46	90.00%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.5%contraband 0.1%legendary 0.1%extraordinary 0.3%Base Grade 5.0%industrial 7.0%classified 17.0%restricted 25.0%consumer 39.0%best hit $1,500 (42.30x)