Collector
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3,925.89
3,926 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $3,533.30 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
31.84%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=450, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendaryDPG (ಠ_ಠ)$3,9263,926 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,2501,250 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendaryDPG (ಠ_ಠ)$3,9263,926 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,2501,250 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3,926 | 90.00% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 62.8%legendary 27.3%remarkable 1.6%extraordinary 4.3%base 1.0%contraband 3.0%best hit $1,250 (0.32x)