50-50

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$20.00

20 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $18.00 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

60.39%

59 openings, odds method

Variance

6.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

58 openings · below min

30 days

59 openings · below min

since tracking started

59 openings · below min

-0.5%171.3%343.0%

Small sample. 59 openings and 5.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	56.42%±286.1	—	odds
7d	58	61.19%±65.1	—	odds
30d	59	60.39%±64.5	—	odds
All	59	60.39%±64.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 59 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #EB4B4B	1 in 200	$550 550 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.3%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 83	$300 300 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.0%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$46.47 46.47 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.5%	2	1.5	1.36×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 43	$45.50 45.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.8%	1	1.4	0.74×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$45.00 45 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.5%	2	1.8	1.13×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 29	$27.00 27 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.3%	5	2.1	2.42×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 38	$23.61 23.61 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$20.48 20.48 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.0%	5	4.1	1.21×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	27.4%	$13.74 13.74 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.9%	12	16.2	0.74×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 15	$6.37 6.37 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	4	3.9	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$3.00 3 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.9	—
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Indigo (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 40	$2.76 2.76 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	2	1.5	1.36×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$2.41 2.41 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	3	3.4	0.89×
Souvenir FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 14	$2.09 2.09 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	3	4.1	0.73×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$2.00 2 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	5	1.8	2.82×
MP7 \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 17	$2.00 2 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	4	3.5	1.13×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Turf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$1.99 1.99 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	4	3.0	1.36×
P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$1.96 1.96 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	4	4.1	0.97×
Sealed Graffiti \| Smarmy (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 21	$1.18 1.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	3	2.8	1.06×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=5, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.376.37 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x18h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$13.7413.74 CSGOBIG_COIN0.69x18h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$13.7413.74 CSGOBIG_COIN0.69x1d

Sealed Graffiti | Smarmy (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.181.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x1d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$27.0027 CSGOBIG_COIN1.35x1d

P250 | Digital Architect (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$20.4820.48 CSGOBIG_COIN1.02x1d

P250 | See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.376.37 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x1d

P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$20.0020 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.961.96 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$20.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#EB4B4B 0.5%covert knife 1.2%classified 30.7%covert 15.4%mil spec 2.6%restricted 24.3%#B0C3D9 7.3%Mil Spec Grade 12.0%Consumer Grade 6.0%best hit —