Promotion
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$172.00
172 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $154.80 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
119.04%
7 openings, odds method
Variance
8.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 7 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $3,400 3,400 CSGOBIG_COIN | 43.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 13 | $565 565 CSGOBIG_COIN | 29.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $230 230 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $125 125 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal | 10.0% | $70.00 70 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| MP7 | Army Recon (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777 | 55.0% | $1.09 1.09 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.4% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.78× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=56, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested)gloves · ImmortalAlex rose 🌹 They/She$172172 CSGOBIG_COIN$70.0070 CSGOBIG_COIN0.41x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $172 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%covert knife 20.0%Immortal 10.0%#777777 55.0%best hit $565 (3.28x)