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Butterfly Effect

A case on CSGOEmpire, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$67.59
110 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
91.48%
2,573 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
163 openings · below min
7 days
91.25%±3.331,689 openings
30 days
91.48%±2.792,573 openings
since tracking started
91.48%±2.792,573 openings
82.5%91.8%101.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h16391.66%±8.45—sample
7d1,68991.25%±3.33—sample
30d2,57391.48%±2.79—sample
All2,57391.48%±2.79—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSGOEmpire publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$67.59110 coins$9211,499 coins13.62x
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$67.59110 coins$9211,499 coins13.62x
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covertBahuyabah$67.59110 coins$9211,499 coins13.62x
★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covertAK$67.59110 coins$6141,000 coins9.09x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Immortal$67.59110 coins$551897 coins8.15x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalCrewSader.$67.59110 coins$551897 coins8.15x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert$67.59110 coins$91.93150 coins1.36x
★ Huntsman Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700$67.59110 coins$97.42159 coins1.44x
MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$67.59110 coins$66.68109 coins0.99x
AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · LegendaryCrewSader.$67.59110 coins$6.1410 coins0.09x
★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$67.59110 coins$78.90128 coins1.17x
AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$67.59110 coins$6.1410 coins0.09x
★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert$67.59110 coins$91.93150 coins1.36x
★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · CovertCrewSader.$67.59110 coins$84.68138 coins1.25x
★ Huntsman Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700$67.59110 coins$97.42159 coins1.44x
AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$67.59110 coins$6.1410 coins0.09x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $921 (13.62x)