10% AWP
A case on CSGORoll (10%, awp), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.87
12.67 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $8.06 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.96%
39.5K openings, odds method
Variance
112.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 48
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $7,521 10,745 coins | 9.3% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× |
| AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,111 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 19.8% | 37 | 35.6 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $102 145 coins | 12.6% | 402 | 395.9 | 1.02× |
| AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $94.50 135 coins | 11.7% | 388 | 395.9 | 0.98× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $83.30 119 coins | 10.3% | 380 | 395.9 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $76.30 109 coins | 9.5% | 374 | 395.9 | 0.94× |
| AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 36 | $38.76 55.37 coins | 13.5% | 1,097 | 1108.5 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $36.40 52 coins | 6.8% | 608 | 593.9 | 1.02× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 63 | $32.17 45.95 coins | 6.4% | 616 | 633.5 | 0.97× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.2% | 35,684 | 35631.9 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerdealskins.com csgoroll.com$8.8712.67 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumermonstergiss$8.8712.67 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.87 | 90.92% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.84 | 90.92% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.86 | 90.88% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.0%classified 1.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $7,521 (848.1x)