5% Asiimov
A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.63
16.62 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $10.58 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.69%
29.8K openings, odds method
Variance
24.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic | 1 in 100 | $477 682 coins | 45.1% | 299 | 297.9 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $221 316 coins | 20.9% | 293 | 297.9 | 0.98× |
| P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $218 312 coins | 20.7% | 283 | 297.9 | 0.95× |
| M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $113 162 coins | 10.7% | 311 | 297.9 | 1.04× |
| P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $26.49 37.84 coins | 2.5% | 342 | 297.9 | 1.15× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 95.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 28,258 | 28296.7 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.63 | 90.90% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.65 | 90.91% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.87 | 90.91% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 1.0%covert 3.0%classified 1.0%consumer 95.0%best hit —