5% Awp
A case on CSGORoll (5%, awp), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.86
5.51 coins
Advertised RTP
90.84%
EV $3.50 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.62%
156K openings, odds method
Variance
102.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 99
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 156K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 22,222 | $4,946 7,065 coins | 6.4% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.85× |
| AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 20,000 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 2.2% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $207 296 coins | 29.6% | 774 | 780.9 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $93.10 133 coins | 13.3% | 770 | 780.9 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 167 | $51.53 73.61 coins | 8.8% | 912 | 937.1 | 0.97× |
| AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 96 | $42.41 60.58 coins | 12.6% | 1,651 | 1625.0 | 1.02× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $39.24 56.06 coins | 8.4% | 1,122 | 1171.3 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 125 | $32.87 46.96 coins | 7.5% | 1,278 | 1249.4 | 1.02× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 125 | $32.82 46.89 coins | 7.5% | 1,313 | 1249.4 | 1.05× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 95.0% | $0.14 0.2 coins | 3.8% | 148,344 | 148368.1 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.84%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $3.86 | 90.84% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.86 | 90.85% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.82 | 90.83% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.82 | 90.97% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.6%classified 0.6%restricted 0.8%industrial 95.0%best hit $4,960 (1,298x)