70% AK
A case on CSGORoll (rifles, 70%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$71.65
102 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $65.13 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.76%
236 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 236 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$71.65102 coins$93.80134 coins1.31x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$71.65102 coins$24.5335.05 coins0.34x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$71.65102 coins$30.3243.32 coins0.42x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedShaw$71.65102 coins$30.3243.32 coins0.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $71.65 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $71.67 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $70.52 | 90.91% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 37.3%classified 23.7%mil spec 9.0%consumer 30.0%best hit $926 (13.13x)