After Life

A case on CSGORoll (hot, 50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$44.67

63.81 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $40.60 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.12%

1,358 openings, odds method

Variance

17.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

54 openings · below min

7 days

95.63%±23.941,126 openings

30 days

92.12%±21.751,358 openings

since tracking started

92.12%±21.751,358 openings

24.5%136.3%248.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	54	136.32%±111.3	—	odds
7d	1,126	95.63%±23.9	+0.4σ	odds
30d	1,358	92.12%±21.8	+0.1σ	odds
All	1,358	92.12%±21.8	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,358 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100,000	$53.5K 76,380 coins	1.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$9,093 12,990 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 100,000	$7,000 10,000 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| 3DMAX (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 20,000	$3,312 4,731 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50,000	$2,716 3,880 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$811 1,159 coins	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$493 705 coins	0.2%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$328 468 coins	0.4%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	10.0%	$193 275 coins	47.4%	137	135.8	1.01×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$174 249 coins	4.3%	12	13.6	0.88×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$121 173 coins	14.9%	74	67.9	1.09×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$92.40 132 coins	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	10.0%	$87.50 125 coins	21.6%	137	135.8	1.01×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.0%	$27.65 39.5 coins	6.8%	163	135.8	1.20×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	10.0%	$5.56 7.95 coins	1.4%	116	135.8	0.85×
Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.69 0.98 coins	0.2%	145	135.8	1.07×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	10.0%	$0.54 0.77 coins	0.1%	118	135.8	0.87×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$0.06 0.08 coins	0.0%	202	203.7	0.99×
Souvenir AUG \| Snake Pit (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · consumer	18.8%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	252	255.4	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$44.6763.81 coins$8111,159 coins18.16x22h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir AUG | Snake Pit (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$44.6763.81 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x7h

Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$44.6763.81 coins$0.690.98 coins0.02x7h

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$44.6763.81 coins$121173 coins2.71x7h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$44.6763.81 coins$193275 coins4.31x7h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertTiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com$44.6763.81 coins$193275 coins4.31x7h

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$44.6763.81 coins$0.060.08 coins0.00x8h

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil specMommy$44.6763.81 coins$0.060.08 coins0.00x8h

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$44.6763.81 coins$0.060.08 coins0.00x8h

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$44.6763.81 coins$87.50125 coins1.96x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$44.67	90.90%	19
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$44.66	90.91%	19
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$44.66	90.91%	19
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$44.70	90.91%	19
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$46.29	90.91%	19
6 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$46.29	90.91%	19
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$46.29	90.91%	19
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$46.29	90.91%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$46.28	90.92%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%extraordinary 11.0%covert 15.0%remarkable 0.0%mil spec 25.1%classified 20.1%Mythical 10.0%consumer 18.8%best hit $811 (18.16x)