Alien

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,099.72

1,571 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $999.75 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.21%

22 openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

22 openings · below min

30 days

22 openings · below min

since tracking started

22 openings · below min

21.5%85.3%149.0%

Small sample. 22 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	22	85.21%±63.0	—	odds
30d	22	85.21%±63.0	—	odds
All	22	85.21%±63.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$11.9K 17,000 coins	11.9%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$7,294 10,420 coins	7.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$6,643 9,490 coins	3.3%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$5,688 8,125 coins	8.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 50	$2,842 4,060 coins	5.7%	1	0.4	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 33	$2,615 3,735 coins	7.8%	1	0.7	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 67	$1,576 2,251 coins	2.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn)weapon · legendary	1 in 17	$1,528 2,183 coins	9.2%	2	1.3	1.52×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 25	$1,059 1,513 coins	4.2%	1	0.9	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	20.0%	$971 1,387 coins	19.4%	2	4.4	0.45×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20	$937 1,339 coins	4.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	21.5%	$546 780 coins	11.7%	1	4.7	0.21×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	33.0%	$115 164 coins	3.8%	13	7.3	1.79×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.