Angel

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$112.41

161 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $102.19 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.87%

62 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

62 openings · below min

30 days

62 openings · below min

since tracking started

62 openings · below min

52.5%86.8%121.0%

Small sample. 62 openings and 14.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	62	86.87%±33.5	—	odds
30d	62	86.87%±33.5	—	odds
All	62	86.87%±33.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 62 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 5,000	$6,510 9,300 coins	1.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$4,263 6,090 coins	1.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,255 1,793 coins	1.2%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$1,142 1,631 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$999 1,427 coins	1.0%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 286	$563 804 coins	1.9%	1	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$388 554 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$349 498 coins	3.4%	0	0.6	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$262 374 coins	3.8%	2	0.9	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	20.3%	$211 301 coins	41.8%	7	12.6	0.56×
★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$200 285 coins	4.9%	0	1.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$162 232 coins	1.2%	0	0.5	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$144 205 coins	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 133	$142 203 coins	1.0%	0	0.5	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 80	$131 187 coins	1.6%	2	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 22	$105 150 coins	4.6%	3	2.8	1.08×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 80	$95.90 137 coins	1.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$80.50 115 coins	1.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	12.0%	$78.40 112 coins	9.2%	8	7.4	1.08×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$71.40 102 coins	1.7%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	15.0%	$44.47 63.53 coins	6.5%	13	9.3	1.40×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 15	$33.26 47.52 coins	2.1%	5	4.0	1.24×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	26.2%	$25.77 36.81 coins	6.6%	20	16.2	1.23×
Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 133	$13.55 19.35 coins	0.1%	0	0.5	—

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$112161 coins$1,0201,457 coins9.07x4d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertLiberties$112161 coins$552788 coins4.90x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$112161 coins$211301 coins1.87x23h

MP9 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$112161 coins$262374 coins2.33x23h

USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$112161 coins$25.7736.81 coins0.23x23h

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$112161 coins$211301 coins1.87x23h

USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil specWinja$112161 coins$25.7736.81 coins0.23x23h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$112161 coins$44.4763.53 coins0.40x23h

USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$112161 coins$25.7736.81 coins0.23x23h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$112161 coins$44.4763.53 coins0.40x23h

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covertWinja$112161 coins$105150 coins0.93x23h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$112	90.91%	24
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$113	90.91%	24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$112	90.91%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 43.9%extraordinary 12.6%restricted 2.3%classified 15.0%mil spec 26.2%best hit $1,020 (9.07x)