Antique
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$85.20
122 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $77.46 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
62.44%
25 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
53.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 25 openings and 8.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$87.41125 coins$65.3793.38 coins0.75x
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)weapon · classified$87.41125 coins$29.8542.65 coins0.34x
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$87.41125 coins$40.5457.91 coins0.46x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $85.20 | 90.91% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $85.21 | 90.91% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $86.10 | 90.91% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $87.41 | 90.91% | 26 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $87.79 | 90.91% | 26 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 35.0%extraordinary 5.4%classified 20.0%restricted 21.6%industrial 18.0%best hit —