Arabian Nights
A case on CSGORoll (knives, gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.22
21.74 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $13.83 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.34%
2,358 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,358 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$15.4322.04 coins$9851,407 coins63.84x
Latest dropsnewest first
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)weapon · uncommonhieschdavid$15.2221.74 coins$0.660.94 coins0.04x
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rarehieschdavid$15.2221.74 coins$24.8435.48 coins1.63x
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classifiedhieschdavid$15.2221.74 coins$2.513.58 coins0.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $15.22 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.22 | 90.89% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.23 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.43 | 90.92% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.9%extraordinary 0.1%classified 22.0%rare 2.0%restricted 56.0%uncommon 15.0%best hit $985 (63.84x)