August

A case on CSGORoll (10%, partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.10

21.57 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $13.73 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.45%

37.5K openings, odds method

Variance

185.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 40

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.84%±36.855,236 openings

7 days

87.46%±14.8731.7K openings

30 days

87.45%±13.6537.5K openings

since tracking started

87.45%±13.6537.5K openings

53.5%91.0%128.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5,236	90.84%±36.9	−0.0σ	odds
7d	31.7K	87.46%±14.9	−0.5σ	odds
30d	37.5K	87.45%±13.7	−0.5σ	odds
All	37.5K	87.45%±13.7	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100,000	$53.5K 76,380 coins	3.9%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 50,000	$11.4K 16,295 coins	1.7%	2	0.8	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$8,887 12,695 coins	6.5%	3	3.8	0.80×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$1,865 2,665 coins	2.7%	8	7.5	1.06×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$1,000 1,428 coins	3.4%	14	17.7	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$603 862 coins	6.6%	42	56.4	0.74×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 1,000	$454 648 coins	3.3%	34	37.6	0.90×
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$277 396 coins	14.1%	275	263.1	1.05×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$170 243 coins	18.6%	579	563.8	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 200	$157 224 coins	5.7%	164	187.9	0.87×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 103	$128 183 coins	9.1%	368	364.6	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)weapon · covert · Phase 3	1 in 50	$67.54 96.49 coins	9.8%	806	751.7	1.07×
Sticker \| malta (Gold) \| Katowice 2019sticker · extraordinary	1 in 50	$44.12 63.03 coins	6.4%	743	751.7	0.99×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Dren, Gunman Taco Truckmusic kit · high	1 in 50	$16.70 23.86 coins	2.4%	795	751.7	1.06×
Sticker \| Silver (Foil)sticker · exotic	45.0%	$1.22 1.75 coins	4.0%	16,766	16914.2	0.99×
Sticker \| Welcome to the Clutchsticker · high	45.0%	$0.52 0.75 coins	1.7%	16,988	16914.2	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl< blank >$15.1121.59 coins$11.4K16,295 coins754.7x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$15.2821.83 coins$11.4K16,295 coins746.4x5d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary$15.1021.57 coins$8,88712,695 coins588.5x21h

AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary$15.2821.83 coins$8,83112,615 coins577.9x3d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary$15.2821.83 coins$8,83112,615 coins577.9x4d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary$15.2821.83 coins$8,83112,615 coins577.9x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryYT/AugustGambles$15.2821.83 coins$1,9492,785 coins127.6x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryautodriver$15.2821.83 coins$1,9492,785 coins127.6x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$15.2821.83 coins$1,9492,785 coins127.6x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$15.2821.83 coins$1,9492,785 coins127.6x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Silver (Foil)sticker · exotic$15.1021.57 coins$1.221.75 coins0.08x9m

Sticker | Welcome to the Clutchsticker · high$15.1021.57 coins$0.520.75 coins0.03x9m

Sticker | Welcome to the Clutchsticker · highRelaxa *$15.1021.57 coins$0.520.75 coins0.03x9m

Sticker | Welcome to the Clutchsticker · high$15.1021.57 coins$0.520.75 coins0.03x12m

Sticker | Silver (Foil)sticker · exotic$15.1021.57 coins$1.221.75 coins0.08x12m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$15.10	90.91%	16
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$15.10	90.93%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$15.22	90.91%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$15.28	90.93%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 4.7%extraordinary 2.0%rare 0.1%classified 0.7%epic 0.5%high 47.0%exotic 45.0%best hit $11.4K (754.7x)