Bermuda
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.25
20.36 coins
Advertised RTP
90.93%
EV $12.96 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.89%
2,568 openings, odds method
Variance
7.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.88% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.02% – 113.76%, 2,568 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,568 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | Natus Vincere | Boston 2018graffiti · highRusty Cake$14.2520.36 coins$3.745.35 coins0.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $14.25 | 90.93% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $14.26 | 90.93% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.21 | 90.93% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $14.34 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $14.34 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.39 | 90.90% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.1%legendary 0.1%mil spec 1.0%exotic 9.5%restricted 17.5%consumer 5.2%classified 8.1%base 9.3%high 19.7%industrial 3.5%uncommon 24.0%best hit $1,000 (69.42x)