BHOP

A case on CSGORoll (knives, gloves, 30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$49.24

70.35 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $44.77 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.58%

2,549 openings, odds method

Variance

2.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.22%±19.27289 openings

7 days

94.95%±6.892,237 openings

30 days

93.58%±6.452,549 openings

since tracking started

93.58%±6.452,549 openings

76.5%96.2%116.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	289	96.22%±19.3	+0.5σ	odds
7d	2,237	94.95%±6.89	+1.1σ	odds
30d	2,549	93.58%±6.45	+0.8σ	odds
All	2,549	93.58%±6.45	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,549 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$6,188 8,840 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$3,458 4,940 coins	1.5%	1	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$2,244 3,205 coins	0.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,500	$939 1,341 coins	0.8%	1	1.0	0.98×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 769	$493 705 coins	1.4%	3	3.3	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,010	$474 677 coins	1.0%	3	2.5	1.19×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 714	$449 641 coins	1.4%	5	3.6	1.40×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$377 539 coins	0.7%	1	2.0	0.49×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 556	$360 514 coins	1.4%	5	4.6	1.09×
Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 455	$323 461 coins	1.6%	8	5.6	1.43×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 244	$300 429 coins	2.8%	11	10.5	1.05×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 323	$300 428 coins	2.1%	10	7.9	1.27×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 125	$228 326 coins	4.1%	23	20.4	1.13×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 133	$190 272 coins	3.2%	22	19.1	1.15×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$179 256 coins	4.0%	21	25.5	0.82×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 71	$178 254 coins	5.6%	35	35.7	0.98×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 83	$154 220 coins	4.1%	36	30.6	1.18×
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 122	$132 189 coins	2.4%	20	20.9	0.96×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 106	$122 174 coins	2.6%	19	24.0	0.79×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 385	$108 154 coins	0.6%	11	6.6	1.66×
Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| Boston 2018sticker · remarkable	1 in 33	$93.80 134 coins	6.3%	70	76.5	0.92×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 40	$90.30 129 coins	5.0%	67	63.5	1.06×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$43.90 62.72 coins	1.7%	46	43.3	1.06×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	21.0%	$35.81 51.15 coins	16.8%	543	535.3	1.01×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	19.0%	$25.70 36.72 coins	10.9%	463	484.3	0.96×
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	21.5%	$24.49 34.98 coins	11.8%	546	548.0	1.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 25	$19.01 27.15 coins	1.7%	104	102.0	1.02×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	18.5%	$9.33 13.33 coins	3.9%	475	471.6	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$50.3771.96 coins$3,4584,940 coins68.65x3d

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryLeO$50.3771.96 coins$8881,269 coins17.63x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$50.3771.96 coins$511730 coins10.14x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Cloud9 (Holo) | Boston 2018sticker · remarkable$49.2470.35 coins$93.80134 coins1.90x24m

P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$49.2470.35 coins$24.4934.98 coins0.50x51m

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$49.2470.35 coins$90.30129 coins1.83x53m

PP-Bizon | Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted$49.2470.35 coins$9.3313.33 coins0.19x54m

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendaryTerroristi$49.2470.35 coins$360514 coins7.31x55m

PP-Bizon | Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted$49.2470.35 coins$9.3313.33 coins0.19x1h

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$49.2470.35 coins$90.30129 coins1.83x1h

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$49.2470.35 coins$25.7036.72 coins0.52x1h

PP-Bizon | Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted$49.2470.35 coins$9.3313.33 coins0.19x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$49.24	90.91%	28
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$49.84	90.91%	28
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$50.37	90.91%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.9%extraordinary 1.0%classified 44.0%legendary 0.2%remarkable 3.2%restricted 40.6%rare 4.0%best hit $3,458 (68.65x)