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Bing Chilling

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$205.32
293 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $186.65 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.10%
155 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
18 openings · below min
7 days
90.83%±35.28133 openings
30 days
97.10%±32.69155 openings
since tracking started
97.10%±32.69155 openings
-0.5%84.0%168.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1872.76%±95.2—odds
7d13390.83%±35.3−0.0σodds
30d15597.10%±32.7+0.4σodds
All15597.10%±32.7+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 155 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 100,000$56K 80,000 coins0.3%00.0—
AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x Titan (Holo) (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary1 in 20,000$28K 40,000 coins0.8%00.0—
AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$6,188 8,840 coins3.3%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 10,000$5,978 8,540 coins0.3%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 2,000$4,669 6,670 coins1.3%00.1—
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 667$3,458 4,940 coins2.8%10.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 41 in 333$2,737 3,910 coins4.4%10.5—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 500$2,219 3,170 coins2.4%00.3—
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 455$1,059 1,513 coins1.2%10.3—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 400$1,051 1,502 coins1.4%20.4—
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 286$1,033 1,475 coins1.9%00.5—
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 200$595 850 coins1.6%10.8—
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 143$467 667 coins1.8%11.10.92×
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 53$377 539 coins3.8%22.90.68×
P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 40$356 508 coins4.8%73.91.81×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 111$302 432 coins1.5%11.40.72×
★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 22$278 397 coins6.7%57.00.72×
G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20$272 388 coins7.3%27.80.26×
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 83$264 377 coins1.7%21.91.08×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 67$221 315 coins1.8%32.31.29×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified19.7%$186 266 coins19.6%2930.50.95×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 14$160 228 coins6.0%1010.90.92×
★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 13$149 213 coins6.4%1112.40.89×
MP9 | Stained Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted15.0%$93.80 134 coins7.5%2523.31.08×
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified18.0%$65.46 93.51 coins6.3%3527.91.25×
★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert12.0%$50.11 71.59 coins3.2%1618.60.86×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$207296 coins$3,4584,940 coins16.68x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$207296 coins$2,7373,910 coins13.20x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$207296 coins$2,7373,910 coins13.20x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$207296 coins$1,0561,508 coins5.09x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$207296 coins$1,0511,502 coins5.07x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$207296 coins$1,0511,502 coins5.07x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$205293 coins$595850 coins2.90x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified$205293 coins$186266 coins0.91x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$205293 coins$160228 coins0.78x
★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covertKlass 2$205293 coins$149213 coins0.73x
★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$205293 coins$50.1171.59 coins0.24x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$205293 coins$595850 coins2.90x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$205293 coins$65.4693.51 coins0.32x
★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$205293 coins$50.1171.59 coins0.24x
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$205293 coins$264377 coins1.29x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$205293 coins$65.4693.51 coins0.32x
MP9 | Stained Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$205293 coins$93.80134 coins0.46x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$20590.91%26
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$20690.91%26
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$20790.91%26
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.4%covert 24.7%extraordinary 5.8%restricted 24.4%classified 44.7%best hit $3,458 (16.68x)