Bloom

A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$285.58

408 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $259.62 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

52.35%

16 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

61.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

16 openings · below min

30 days

16 openings · below min

since tracking started

16 openings · below min

2.0%52.5%103.0%

Small sample. 16 openings and 3.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	16	52.35%±49.9	—	odds
30d	16	52.35%±49.9	—	odds
All	16	52.35%±49.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$3,458 4,940 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 1,250	$3,164 4,520 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$2,069 2,955 coins	1.2%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,949 2,785 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,809 2,585 coins	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Twistzz (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 154	$1,610 2,300 coins	4.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$1,576 2,251 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$1,142 1,632 coins	1.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$1,035 1,478 coins	1.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 83	$631 902 coins	2.9%	0	0.2	—
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	11.7%	$582 832 coins	26.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 67	$568 812 coins	3.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 13	$557 796 coins	17.2%	1	1.3	0.78×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 17	$415 593 coins	9.6%	1	1.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$384 549 coins	4.4%	0	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 125	$371 530 coins	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20	$302 432 coins	5.8%	2	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	11.0%	$274 391 coins	11.6%	2	1.8	1.14×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	15.0%	$113 161 coins	6.5%	2	2.4	0.83×
Sticker \| Miami Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · remarkable	20.0%	$8.58 12.26 coins	0.7%	6	3.2	1.87×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	15.0%	$1.56 2.23 coins	0.1%	2	2.4	0.83×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.