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Blues

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$0.92
1.32 coins
Advertised RTP
90.66%
EV $0.84 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.59%
23.9K openings, odds method
Variance
27.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
82.96%±24.691,758 openings
7 days
91.38%±7.2420.3K openings
30 days
90.59%±6.6723.9K openings
since tracking started
90.59%±6.6723.9K openings
57.5%83.0%108.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,75882.96%±24.7−0.6σodds
7d20.3K91.38%±7.24+0.1σodds
30d23.9K90.59%±6.67−0.1σodds
All23.9K90.59%±6.67−0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$273 390 coins0.3%10.2—
★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100,000$222 317 coins0.3%00.2—
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100,000$197 281 coins0.2%00.2—
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$186 266 coins4.4%74.81.46×
★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 100,000$115 164 coins0.1%00.2—
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$111 159 coins2.7%24.80.42×
MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 10,000$99.40 142 coins1.2%42.41.67×
AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$95.20 136 coins1.1%42.41.67×
MP9 | Stained Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$93.80 134 coins2.2%64.81.25×
USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 5,000$91.70 131 coins2.2%14.80.21×
P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 10,000$91.00 130 coins1.1%32.41.25×
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$89.60 128 coins2.1%54.81.05×
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$84.00 120 coins2.0%34.80.63×
UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 5,000$78.40 112 coins1.9%44.80.84×
USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 5,000$72.80 104 coins1.7%44.80.84×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$59.44 84.91 coins1.4%54.81.05×
★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 5,000$46.54 66.48 coins1.1%34.80.63×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$17.72 25.31 coins0.4%34.80.63×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$15.07 21.53 coins0.4%104.82.09×
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$2.84 4.06 coins6.8%448478.40.94×
AUG | Navy Murano (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 50$2.28 3.25 coins5.4%468478.40.98×
CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 50$1.80 2.57 coins4.3%478478.41.00×
UMP-45 | Scaffold (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.13 1.61 coins2.7%485478.41.01×
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.97 1.38 coins3.5%733717.71.02×
UMP-45 | Scaffold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 50$0.93 1.33 coins2.2%504478.41.05×
Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.89 1.27 coins3.2%701717.70.98×
AUG | Storm (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 25$0.76 1.09 coins3.6%990956.91.03×
MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.73 1.04 coins2.6%737717.71.03×
R8 Revolver | Grip (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$0.72 1.03 coins4.3%1,2331196.11.03×
Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 25$0.69 0.99 coins3.3%923956.90.96×
Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 25$0.64 0.92 coins3.1%893956.90.93×
XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$0.57 0.81 coins2.0%723717.71.01×
MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 25$0.57 0.81 coins2.7%907956.90.95×
P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 25$0.52 0.74 coins2.5%931956.90.97×
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20$0.52 0.74 coins3.1%1,2241196.11.02×
P2000 | Handgun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 20$0.50 0.72 coins3.0%1,2111196.11.01×
SSG 08 | Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$0.45 0.64 coins2.7%1,1781196.10.98×
XM1014 | Blue Steel (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 20$0.43 0.61 coins2.5%1,1791196.10.99×
Nova | Exo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$0.35 0.5 coins2.1%1,2171196.11.02×
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 20$0.34 0.48 coins2.0%1,1881196.10.99×
PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$0.30 0.43 coins1.8%1,1451196.10.96×
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 14$0.26 0.37 coins2.2%1,6851674.51.01×
MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec10.7%$0.11 0.16 coins1.4%2,6762565.91.04×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$0.921.31 coins$273390 coins297.7x
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified$0.921.32 coins$186266 coins201.5x
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified$0.921.32 coins$186266 coins201.5x
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classifiedwar$0.921.31 coins$178254 coins193.9x
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classifiedsimsonbertil$0.921.31 coins$178254 coins193.9x
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMarlboro Red$0.921.31 coins$178254 coins193.9x
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classifiedابو رضوان$0.921.31 coins$178254 coins193.9x
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified$0.921.31 coins$178254 coins193.9x
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.921.31 coins$116166 coins126.7x
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.921.31 coins$116166 coins126.7x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$0.921.32 coins$0.110.16 coins0.12x
SSG 08 | Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$0.921.32 coins$0.450.64 coins0.48x
AUG | Storm (Factory New)weapon · consumer$0.921.32 coins$0.761.09 coins0.83x
PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.921.32 coins$0.300.43 coins0.33x
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$0.921.32 coins$0.340.48 coins0.36x
Nova | Exo (Factory New)weapon · mil specALBERRR$0.921.32 coins$0.350.5 coins0.38x
MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$0.921.32 coins$0.110.16 coins0.12x
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$0.921.32 coins$0.340.48 coins0.36x
CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$0.921.32 coins$1.802.57 coins1.95x
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedlastenkoskija$0.921.32 coins$0.260.37 coins0.28x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.66%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 08:16 UTC$0.9290.66%43
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC$0.9290.60%43
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC$0.9290.69%43
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC$0.9290.89%43
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$0.9290.71%43
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$0.9291.22%43
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC$0.9291.14%43
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC$0.9291.13%43
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC$0.9291.06%43
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC$0.9291.06%43
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC$0.9290.58%43
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC$0.9290.69%43
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC$0.9290.71%43
3 Nov, 09:32 UTC$0.9291.16%43
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$0.9290.68%43
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 25.0%covert 0.1%classified 0.1%mil spec 58.8%industrial 5.0%consumer 6.0%#8847ff 5.0%best hit $273 (297.7x)