Boulder

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$206.84

295 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $188.04 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.00%

156 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

97 openings · below min

30 days

93.00%±26.70156 openings

since tracking started

93.00%±26.70156 openings

-0.5%130.0%260.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	123.67%±136.4	—	odds
7d	97	85.60%±33.9	—	odds
30d	156	93.00%±26.7	+0.2σ	odds
All	156	93.00%±26.7	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 156 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,429	$4,655 6,650 coins	1.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$4,281 6,115 coins	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 667	$2,513 3,590 coins	2.0%	3	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 40	$1,357 1,939 coins	18.0%	4	3.9	1.03×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$1,299 1,855 coins	6.9%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 182	$816 1,166 coins	2.4%	1	0.9	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 29	$806 1,152 coins	15.0%	4	5.5	0.73×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 14	$623 890 coins	23.2%	9	10.9	0.82×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 22	$356 508 coins	8.5%	3	7.0	0.43×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 11	$177 253 coins	8.5%	15	14.0	1.07×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$44.98 64.26 coins	3.6%	26	23.4	1.11×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	18.0%	$34.52 49.31 coins	3.3%	31	28.1	1.10×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	18.0%	$29.14 41.63 coins	2.8%	24	28.1	0.85×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	20.7%	$26.52 37.88 coins	2.9%	36	32.3	1.12×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$214306 coins$2,5343,620 coins11.83x7d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$214306 coins$1,3781,968 coins6.43x5d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearltashud$214306 coins$1,3781,968 coins6.43x6d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$214306 coins$1,3781,968 coins6.43x8d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$207295 coins$1,3571,939 coins6.56x19h

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlBaCraMo- csgoroll.com$207295 coins$1,3571,939 coins6.56x1d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$207295 coins$8161,166 coins3.95x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$207295 coins$1,3571,939 coins6.56x19h

AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$207295 coins$34.5249.31 coins0.17x19h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$207295 coins$44.9864.26 coins0.22x19h

Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$207295 coins$26.5237.88 coins0.13x19h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedLars$207295 coins$44.9864.26 coins0.22x19h

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$207295 coins$29.1441.63 coins0.14x1d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$207295 coins$623890 coins3.01x1d

★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert$207295 coins$177253 coins0.86x1d

AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specBaCraMo- csgoroll.com$207295 coins$34.5249.31 coins0.17x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$207	90.91%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$206	90.91%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$214	90.91%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%covert 46.3%restricted 15.0%mil spec 38.7%best hit $2,534 (11.83x)