Breakout

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$108.19

155 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $98.35 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

62.65%

81 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

40 openings · below min

7 days

75 openings · below min

30 days

81 openings · below min

since tracking started

81 openings · below min

34.5%65.5%96.5%

Small sample. 81 openings and 21.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	40	65.29%±30.4	—	odds
7d	75	62.54%±22.3	—	odds
30d	81	62.65%±21.5	—	odds
All	81	62.65%±21.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 81 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,900 2,715 coins	1.9%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$430 614 coins	21.9%	0	4.0	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$374 534 coins	1.9%	0	0.4	—
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$184 263 coins	1.9%	1	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$153 218 coins	14.0%	4	7.3	0.55×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$143 204 coins	4.4%	3	2.4	1.23×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$128 183 coins	10.4%	7	6.5	1.08×
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$125 178 coins	6.3%	1	4.0	0.25×
★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 13	$79.10 113 coins	6.4%	5	6.5	0.77×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	15.0%	$75.60 108 coins	11.5%	10	12.1	0.82×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$67.35 96.22 coins	3.4%	4	4.0	0.99×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 14	$58.89 84.13 coins	4.2%	9	5.7	1.59×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	10.0%	$39.37 56.24 coins	4.0%	13	8.1	1.60×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	23.4%	$32.73 46.75 coins	7.8%	24	19.0	1.27×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.