Bubbles

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$81.16

116 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $73.78 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.35%

640 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

40 openings · below min

7 days

87.82%±7.88523 openings

30 days

88.35%±7.12640 openings

since tracking started

88.35%±7.12640 openings

79.5%109.7%140.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	40	110.48%±28.8	—	odds
7d	523	87.82%±7.88	−0.8σ	odds
30d	640	88.35%±7.12	−0.7σ	odds
All	640	88.35%±7.12	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 641 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 1,000	$755 1,079 coins	1.0%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$385 550 coins	2.6%	5	3.2	1.56×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 100	$276 394 coins	3.7%	4	6.4	0.62×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$263 375 coins	17.8%	27	32.1	0.84×
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$174 249 coins	7.1%	21	19.2	1.09×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$170 243 coins	18.4%	45	51.3	0.88×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$91.70 131 coins	9.9%	55	51.3	1.07×
AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$90.30 129 coins	11.0%	61	57.7	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)weapon · covert · Phase 4	1 in 14	$67.30 96.14 coins	6.4%	55	44.9	1.23×
USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$59.65 85.22 coins	4.0%	31	32.1	0.97×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$58.95 84.21 coins	4.0%	31	32.1	0.97×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	10.0%	$39.24 56.06 coins	5.3%	62	64.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	15.0%	$29.66 42.37 coins	6.0%	97	96.1	1.01×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classified	23.4%	$8.13 11.61 coins	2.6%	147	150.0	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$81.16116 coins$263375 coins3.23x4m

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare$81.16116 coins$29.6642.37 coins0.37x7m

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertRusty Cake$81.16116 coins$263375 coins3.23x8m

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$81.16116 coins$263375 coins3.23x19m

★ Moto Gloves | POW! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$81.16116 coins$58.9584.21 coins0.73x1h

P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classifiedTyrone$81.16116 coins$8.1311.61 coins0.10x2h

AK-47 | First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$81.16116 coins$90.30129 coins1.11x2h

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)weapon · covert · Phase 4Jocke.1337(eliiite)$81.16116 coins$67.3096.14 coins0.83x4h

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$81.16116 coins$263375 coins3.23x4h

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)weapon · covert · Phase 4$81.16116 coins$67.3096.14 coins0.83x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$81.16	90.91%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$81.82	90.91%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$80.92	90.91%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 33.1%restricted 9.5%epic 1.0%classified 36.4%extraordinary 5.0%rare 15.0%best hit —