Candlelight
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$181.02
259 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $164.56 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.14%
749 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 750 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendaryDD$181259 coins$5,6848,120 coins31.40x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$184263 coins$1,1311,616 coins6.14x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary✪ Greek$184263 coins$1,1311,616 coins6.14x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$181259 coins$1,1001,572 coins6.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $181 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $181 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $184 | 90.91% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.3%covert 60.0%extraordinary 2.7%classified 36.0%best hit $6,542 (36.14x)