Cast Away
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.41
36.3 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $23.10 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.95%
2,456 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,456 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.41 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.41 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $25.55 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $25.56 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.61 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.5%restricted 28.6%classified 52.9%extraordinary 0.2%mil spec 2.0%industrial 1.0%exotic 1.3%remarkable 2.5%consumer 5.0%best hit $878 (34.55x)