Cinema
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.40
9.14 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $5.81 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.05%
4,286 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,386 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.40 | 90.89% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $6.39 | 90.88% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.38 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $6.30 | 90.94% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.29 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $6.30 | 90.87% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.32 | 90.90% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 7.7%exotic 17.3%covert 0.1%extraordinary 1.1%base 3.1%consumer 11.7%mil spec 18.4%uncommon 5.4%Mythical 5.7%restricted 11.0%remarkable 18.5%best hit —