Clown

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$287.75

411 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $261.59 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.29%

680 openings, odds method

Variance

27.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 26

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

63.59%±86.66138 openings

7 days

77.53%±44.14526 openings

30 days

73.29%±38.76680 openings

since tracking started

73.29%±38.76680 openings

-0.5%75.3%151.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	138	63.59%±86.7	−0.6σ	odds
7d	526	77.53%±44.1	−0.6σ	odds
30d	680	73.29%±38.8	−0.9σ	odds
All	680	73.29%±38.8	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 680 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$30.1K 42,950 coins	23.0%	1	1.4	0.74×
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 2,000	$21.8K 31,155 coins	4.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$6,657 9,510 coins	1.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$5,600 8,000 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$2,667 3,810 coins	5.1%	1	3.4	0.29×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 33	$1,939 2,770 coins	22.2%	16	20.4	0.78×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$917 1,310 coins	7.0%	19	13.6	1.40×
★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 31	$846 1,209 coins	10.3%	20	21.7	0.92×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$816 1,166 coins	3.1%	6	6.8	0.88×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 50	$624 891 coins	4.8%	10	13.6	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$603 862 coins	18.5%	56	54.4	1.03×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	40.0%	$1.88 2.68 coins	0.3%	277	272.0	1.02×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	40.0%	$0.41 0.59 coins	0.1%	274	272.0	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$288411 coins$30.1K42,950 coins104.5x1d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$288411 coins$2,6673,810 coins9.27x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Zangetsu$292418 coins$2,0402,915 coins6.98x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$292418 coins$2,0402,915 coins6.98x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$292418 coins$2,0402,915 coins6.98x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Cirrus (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$288411 coins$1.882.68 coins0.01x11h

MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$288411 coins$0.410.59 coins0.00x11h

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$288411 coins$603862 coins2.10x11h

★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryZoid$288411 coins$8461,209 coins2.94x11h

MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$288411 coins$0.410.59 coins0.00x11h

MP7 | Cirrus (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$288411 coins$1.882.68 coins0.01x11h

MP7 | Cirrus (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specZoid$288411 coins$1.882.68 coins0.01x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$288	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$288	90.91%	13
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$292	90.91%	13
4 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$292	90.91%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$292	90.91%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 5.4%remarkable 0.1%covert 14.6%mil spec 40.0%restricted 40.0%best hit $30.1K (104.5x)