Composed

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$164.14

234 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $149.21 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d

151.05%

17 openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

17 openings · below min

since tracking started

17 openings · below min

64.5%197.8%331.0%

Small sample. 17 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	8	205.56%±125.0	—	odds
30d	17	151.05%±85.8	—	odds
All	17	151.05%±85.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 4,000	$14.4K 20,545 coins	2.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50,000	$5,600 8,000 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,417	$4,197 5,995 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,333	$2,100 3,000 coins	1.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 2,000	$1,939 2,770 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,688 2,411 coins	1.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,369 1,955 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,000	$1,108 1,583 coins	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| bondik (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 250	$980 1,400 coins	2.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,333	$931 1,330 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 667	$844 1,205 coins	0.8%	1	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 80	$827 1,182 coins	6.9%	1	0.2	—
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 667	$768 1,097 coins	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 400	$708 1,011 coins	1.2%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| HEN1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 250	$658 940 coins	1.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 400	$535 764 coins	0.9%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$532 760 coins	2.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,000	$517 739 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$497 710 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$466 666 coins	1.6%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$402 574 coins	6.7%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$398 568 coins	1.6%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 250	$390 557 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$337 482 coins	2.8%	1	0.2	—
Sticker \| Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 400	$329 470 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 31	$328 468 coins	7.1%	0	0.6	—
Sticker \| Edward (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 250	$321 459 coins	0.9%	1	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$267 382 coins	0.9%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$263 375 coins	6.6%	2	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$230 328 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 83	$225 321 coins	1.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 667	$224 320 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 133	$206 294 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$203 290 coins	8.2%	2	1.0	1.96×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$188 269 coins	0.6%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$181 259 coins	1.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 133	$137 195 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	15.0%	$117 167 coins	11.8%	2	2.5	0.78×
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 17	$110 157 coins	4.4%	1	1.0	0.98×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 31	$104 148 coins	2.3%	0	0.6	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$95.90 137 coins	3.2%	2	0.9	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$95.20 136 coins	5.1%	1	1.4	0.74×
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 29	$76.30 109 coins	1.8%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.9%	$12.50 17.85 coins	1.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	15.0%	$7.74 11.05 coins	0.8%	1	2.5	0.39×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.