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A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.39

10.56 coins

Advertised RTP

90.89%

EV $6.72 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.13%

2,575 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.87%±15.61148 openings

7 days

92.68%±4.122,171 openings

30 days

92.13%±3.782,575 openings

since tracking started

92.13%±3.782,575 openings

79.5%95.8%112.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	148	95.87%±15.6	+0.6σ	odds
7d	2,171	92.68%±4.12	+0.8σ	odds
30d	2,575	92.13%±3.78	+0.6σ	odds
All	2,575	92.13%±3.78	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,585 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$133 190 coins	0.2%	1	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$111 158 coins	0.3%	3	0.5	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 3,333	$89.60 128 coins	0.4%	2	0.8	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 2,000	$86.80 124 coins	0.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$68.19 97.42 coins	2.0%	6	5.2	1.16×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 500	$51.69 73.84 coins	1.5%	3	5.2	0.58×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 333	$47.31 67.59 coins	2.1%	5	7.8	0.64×
P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$38.99 55.7 coins	2.9%	18	12.9	1.39×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$38.02 54.31 coins	4.2%	21	19.4	1.08×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$24.21 34.59 coins	3.6%	29	25.9	1.12×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 50	$18.12 25.89 coins	5.4%	43	51.7	0.83×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$13.29 18.98 coins	5.9%	82	77.5	1.06×
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$11.26 16.08 coins	11.7%	160	181.0	0.88×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 11	$6.99 9.99 coins	9.4%	251	232.6	1.08×
SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$5.43 7.76 coins	7.3%	240	232.6	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$5.01 7.15 coins	8.2%	438	284.4	1.54×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	17.0%	$4.82 6.89 coins	12.2%	319	439.5	0.73×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	19.0%	$4.72 6.74 coins	13.3%	464	491.2	0.94×
Sticker \| Runtime (Holo)sticker · remarkable	19.9%	$2.88 4.12 coins	8.6%	500	515.4	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$7.3910.56 coins$4.726.74 coins0.64x1h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommonG0DS4LT$7.3910.56 coins$4.726.74 coins0.64x1h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$7.3910.56 coins$4.726.74 coins0.64x1h

SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$7.3910.56 coins$5.437.76 coins0.73x1h

Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$7.3910.56 coins$13.2918.98 coins1.80x1h

Sticker | Runtime (Holo)sticker · remarkable$7.3910.56 coins$2.884.12 coins0.39x2h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$7.3910.56 coins$4.726.74 coins0.64x2h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommonIPR17ツ$7.3910.56 coins$4.726.74 coins0.64x2h

SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$7.3910.56 coins$5.437.76 coins0.73x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$7.39	90.89%	19
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$7.39	90.92%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$7.39	90.93%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 12.3%covert 0.0%rare 2.1%restricted 11.7%uncommon 28.0%mil spec 26.0%remarkable 19.9%best hit —