Creatures

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$49.41

70.58 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $44.92 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

105.44%

180 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

20 openings · below min

7 days

96.59%±22.98133 openings

30 days

105.44%±19.76180 openings

since tracking started

105.44%±19.76180 openings

12.5%72.5%132.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	20	72.52%±59.2	—	odds
7d	133	96.59%±23.0	+0.5σ	odds
30d	180	105.44%±19.8	+1.4σ	odds
All	180	105.44%±19.8	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 180 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband	1 in 100,000	$4,277 6,110 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$1,921 2,745 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$784 1,120 coins	0.9%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$307 438 coins	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$226 323 coins	35.2%	16	12.6	1.27×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 833	$169 242 coins	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,429	$128 183 coins	0.2%	1	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$116 166 coins	3.9%	6	2.7	2.22×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$113 161 coins	10.0%	9	7.2	1.25×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$103 147 coins	1.1%	0	0.9	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$87.50 125 coins	5.8%	3	5.4	0.56×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$86.10 123 coins	1.9%	2	1.8	1.11×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	18.0%	$62.50 89.29 coins	25.0%	36	32.4	1.11×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$32.82 46.89 coins	5.8%	18	14.4	1.25×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$15.58 22.25 coins	4.2%	19	21.6	0.88×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	16.0%	$8.51 12.16 coins	3.0%	31	28.8	1.08×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	28.7%	$1.87 2.67 coins	1.2%	39	51.6	0.76×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$49.4170.58 coins$1.872.67 coins0.04x8h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedMedical Shit$49.4170.58 coins$1.872.67 coins0.04x8h

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$49.4170.58 coins$62.5089.29 coins1.27x8h

Nova | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedAvyrian$49.4170.58 coins$8.5112.16 coins0.17x8h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedMASON92J$49.4170.58 coins$1.872.67 coins0.04x9h

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$49.4170.58 coins$62.5089.29 coins1.27x9h

Nova | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$49.4170.58 coins$8.5112.16 coins0.17x9h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$49.4170.58 coins$1.872.67 coins0.04x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$49.41	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$49.82	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$50.74	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%legendary 0.0%covert 38.8%extraordinary 4.6%classified 28.0%restricted 28.7%best hit —