CS20

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.16

4.52 coins

Advertised RTP

90.83%

EV $2.87 from 85 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.04%

13.2K openings, odds method

Variance

8.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.15%±13.461,768 openings

7 days

89.09%±5.4710.9K openings

30 days

90.04%±4.9913.2K openings

since tracking started

90.04%±4.9913.2K openings

70.0%84.3%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,768	84.15%±13.5	−1.0σ	odds
7d	10.9K	89.09%±5.47	−0.7σ	odds
30d	13.2K	90.04%±4.99	−0.3σ	odds
All	13.2K	90.04%±4.99	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values85 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Classic Knifeknife · covert	1 in 3,333	$159 227 coins	1.7%	2	4.0	0.50×
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 833	$125 179 coins	5.2%	14	15.9	0.88×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$122 175 coins	1.3%	4	4.0	1.01×
★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 667	$80.50 115 coins	4.2%	21	19.8	1.06×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$61.54 87.92 coins	3.2%	15	19.8	0.76×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$44.78 63.97 coins	7.0%	51	59.4	0.86×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$40.04 57.2 coins	2.0%	15	18.5	0.81×
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$39.71 56.73 coins	4.1%	51	39.6	1.29×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$39.24 56.06 coins	2.0%	15	19.8	0.76×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 370	$36.40 52 coins	3.4%	35	35.7	0.98×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$30.51 43.58 coins	4.8%	59	59.4	0.99×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$29.03 41.47 coins	5.6%	79	72.6	1.09×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$27.59 39.41 coins	5.3%	78	72.6	1.07×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$27.59 39.41 coins	6.9%	103	94.4	1.09×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$10.66 15.23 coins	1.9%	64	66.0	0.97×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 222	$8.13 11.61 coins	1.3%	50	59.4	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$7.15 10.21 coins	3.0%	183	158.5	1.15×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 222	$6.92 9.89 coins	1.1%	63	59.4	1.06×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 95	$5.94 8.48 coins	2.2%	158	138.7	1.14×
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$4.68 6.68 coins	2.0%	162	158.5	1.02×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$4.40 6.29 coins	1.8%	146	158.5	0.92×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$4.35 6.21 coins	1.8%	149	158.5	0.94×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 125	$4.32 6.17 coins	1.2%	88	105.7	0.83×
P250 \| Inferno (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$4.31 6.16 coins	1.8%	153	158.5	0.97×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$4.18 5.97 coins	1.2%	107	105.7	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 83	$4.07 5.82 coins	1.7%	172	158.5	1.09×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$3.99 5.7 coins	1.7%	160	158.5	1.01×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 105	$3.68 5.25 coins	1.2%	121	125.5	0.96×
FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$3.58 5.12 coins	1.5%	160	158.5	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$3.57 5.1 coins	1.5%	166	158.5	1.05×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$3.38 4.83 coins	1.4%	163	158.5	1.03×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$3.32 4.74 coins	1.4%	163	158.5	1.03×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$3.32 4.74 coins	1.4%	143	158.5	0.90×
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$2.40 3.43 coins	1.0%	160	158.5	1.01×
M249 \| Aztec (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$2.04 2.91 coins	0.9%	143	158.5	0.90×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$1.41 2.01 coins	0.6%	176	158.5	1.11×
MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$1.25 1.79 coins	0.5%	186	158.5	1.17×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$1.03 1.47 coins	0.4%	139	158.5	0.88×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 83	$0.89 1.27 coins	0.4%	162	158.5	1.02×
P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 83	$0.84 1.2 coins	0.4%	155	158.5	0.98×
Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 83	$0.76 1.09 coins	0.3%	138	158.5	0.87×
MAG-7 \| Popdog (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 83	$0.72 1.03 coins	0.3%	138	158.5	0.87×
M249 \| Aztec (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.69 0.98 coins	0.3%	152	158.5	0.96×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.53 0.76 coins	0.2%	168	158.5	1.06×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.45 0.65 coins	0.2%	142	158.5	0.90×
P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 83	$0.45 0.64 coins	0.2%	154	158.5	0.97×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.45 0.64 coins	0.2%	137	158.5	0.86×
P250 \| Inferno (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.43 0.62 coins	0.2%	151	158.5	0.95×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.43 0.61 coins	0.2%	153	158.5	0.97×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.41 0.59 coins	0.2%	189	158.5	1.19×
M249 \| Aztec (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 83	$0.41 0.59 coins	0.2%	163	158.5	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.41 0.59 coins	0.2%	156	158.5	0.98×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.41 0.58 coins	0.2%	176	158.5	1.11×
M249 \| Aztec (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.41 0.58 coins	0.2%	162	158.5	1.02×
M249 \| Aztec (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.41 0.58 coins	0.2%	161	158.5	1.02×
SCAR-20 \| Assault (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 83	$0.41 0.58 coins	0.2%	146	158.5	0.92×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.39 0.56 coins	0.2%	158	158.5	1.00×
FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$0.39 0.56 coins	0.2%	140	158.5	0.88×
FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$0.39 0.56 coins	0.2%	178	158.5	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$0.38 0.54 coins	0.2%	165	158.5	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$0.36 0.52 coins	0.2%	171	158.5	1.08×
Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$0.35 0.5 coins	0.1%	158	158.5	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 63	$0.33 0.47 coins	0.2%	225	211.3	1.06×
SCAR-20 \| Assault (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$0.32 0.45 coins	0.1%	173	158.5	1.09×
SCAR-20 \| Assault (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 63	$0.32 0.45 coins	0.2%	209	210.7	0.99×
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$0.31 0.44 coins	0.1%	149	158.5	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 63	$0.31 0.44 coins	0.2%	196	211.3	0.93×
MAG-7 \| Popdog (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 63	$0.31 0.44 coins	0.2%	198	211.3	0.94×
FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 48	$0.31 0.44 coins	0.2%	296	277.4	1.07×
MAG-7 \| Popdog (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$0.30 0.43 coins	0.1%	169	158.5	1.07×
Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 44	$0.30 0.43 coins	0.2%	302	297.2	1.02×
FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 63	$0.29 0.42 coins	0.2%	231	211.3	1.09×
SCAR-20 \| Assault (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.29 0.42 coins	0.2%	270	264.2	1.02×
MAG-7 \| Popdog (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 44	$0.29 0.42 coins	0.2%	298	297.2	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 69	$0.29 0.41 coins	0.1%	202	191.5	1.05×
Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 48	$0.29 0.41 coins	0.2%	270	277.4	0.97×
MAG-7 \| Popdog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 36	$0.29 0.41 coins	0.3%	341	369.9	0.92×
MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$0.28 0.4 coins	0.1%	176	158.5	1.11×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 63	$0.28 0.4 coins	0.2%	198	211.3	0.94×
MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 63	$0.28 0.4 coins	0.2%	201	211.3	0.95×
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 48	$0.27 0.39 coins	0.2%	274	277.4	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 48	$0.27 0.39 coins	0.2%	276	277.4	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 42	$0.27 0.38 coins	0.2%	314	317.0	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 48	$0.24 0.35 coins	0.2%	273	277.4	0.98×
SCAR-20 \| Assault (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 48	$0.22 0.32 coins	0.2%	278	277.4	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Classic Knifeknife · covert$3.154.5 coins$160228 coins50.67x6d

★ Classic Knifeknife · covertILUVCUPLA$3.154.5 coins$160228 coins50.67x7d

★ Classic Knifeknife · covertBrendis$3.154.5 coins$160228 coins50.67x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Decommissioned (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$3.164.52 coins$0.390.56 coins0.12x12m

Tec-9 | Flash Out (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$3.164.52 coins$0.270.39 coins0.09x12m

Five-SeveN | Buddy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$3.164.52 coins$0.410.59 coins0.13x12m

FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covertPOOF$3.164.52 coins$29.0341.47 coins9.17x12m

Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$3.164.52 coins$0.290.41 coins0.09x15m

MAG-7 | Popdog (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specPOOF$3.164.52 coins$0.310.44 coins0.10x15m

P90 | Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$3.164.52 coins$3.324.74 coins1.05x15m

P90 | Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$3.164.52 coins$3.324.74 coins1.05x15m

Five-SeveN | Buddy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$3.164.52 coins$1.031.47 coins0.33x15m

FAMAS | Decommissioned (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$3.164.52 coins$0.310.44 coins0.10x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.83%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$3.16	90.83%	85
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$3.16	90.88%	85
9 Nov, 20:11 UTC	$3.16	90.88%	85
9 Nov, 14:08 UTC	$3.16	90.83%	85
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$3.15	90.99%	85
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$3.15	90.99%	85
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$3.16	90.90%	85
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$3.14	90.89%	85
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$3.15	90.87%	85
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC	$3.14	90.96%	85
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC	$3.14	90.93%	85
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$3.14	90.98%	85
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$3.15	90.98%	85
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$3.15	90.92%	85
3 Nov, 09:32 UTC	$3.16	90.87%	85
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.16	90.88%	85

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.8%classified 10.6%mil spec 52.5%pink 1.1%restricted 21.6%Legendary 0.8%violet 2.4%Mythical 2.4%Rare 3.6%Restricted 1.2%best hit $160 (50.67x)