Danger Zone

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.07

2.96 coins

Advertised RTP

90.98%

EV $1.89 from 97 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.68%

30.6K openings, odds method

Variance

15.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 48

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.94%±14.312,865 openings

7 days

89.46%±4.8025.7K openings

30 days

88.68%±4.4030.6K openings

since tracking started

88.68%±4.4030.6K openings

68.0%83.0%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,865	82.94%±14.3	−1.1σ	odds
7d	25.7K	89.46%±4.80	−0.6σ	odds
30d	30.6K	88.68%±4.40	−1.0σ	odds
All	30.6K	88.68%±4.40	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values97 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 100,000	$767 1,095 coins	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 33,333	$477 682 coins	0.8%	0	0.9	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50,000	$368 526 coins	0.4%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$263 375 coins	1.4%	1	3.1	0.33×
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$115 165 coins	1.2%	2	6.1	0.33×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 3,333	$106 151 coins	1.7%	12	9.2	1.31×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$61.13 87.33 coins	3.2%	29	30.6	0.95×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$50.21 71.73 coins	2.7%	34	30.6	1.11×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$48.50 69.28 coins	2.6%	27	30.6	0.88×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$48.33 69.05 coins	2.6%	29	30.6	0.95×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$42.41 60.58 coins	4.5%	71	61.2	1.16×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$40.12 57.31 coins	4.3%	56	61.2	0.91×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$39.55 56.5 coins	6.3%	81	91.8	0.88×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$39.37 56.24 coins	4.2%	56	61.2	0.91×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$38.76 55.37 coins	4.1%	56	61.2	0.91×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$38.76 55.37 coins	6.2%	98	91.8	1.07×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$36.79 52.56 coins	3.9%	55	61.2	0.90×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$23.30 33.28 coins	4.9%	134	122.4	1.09×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$10.79 15.42 coins	2.3%	126	122.4	1.03×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$8.13 11.61 coins	1.7%	102	122.4	0.83×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$7.54 10.77 coins	1.6%	137	122.4	1.12×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 250	$6.40 9.14 coins	1.4%	124	122.4	1.01×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$5.45 7.78 coins	1.2%	110	122.4	0.90×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 250	$5.03 7.19 coins	1.1%	133	122.4	1.09×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$4.93 7.04 coins	1.3%	170	153.1	1.11×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$4.90 7 coins	1.3%	138	153.1	0.90×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250	$4.70 6.72 coins	1.0%	117	122.4	0.96×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 200	$4.66 6.66 coins	1.2%	148	153.1	0.97×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$4.45 6.36 coins	1.2%	164	153.1	1.07×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$4.45 6.36 coins	1.2%	151	153.1	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$4.31 6.15 coins	0.9%	123	122.4	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 200	$4.27 6.1 coins	1.1%	152	153.1	0.99×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$3.98 5.68 coins	2.1%	297	306.1	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$3.86 5.51 coins	1.0%	185	153.1	1.21×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$3.46 4.94 coins	1.1%	177	183.7	0.96×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$3.37 4.81 coins	0.9%	154	153.1	1.01×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 200	$3.10 4.43 coins	0.8%	145	153.1	0.95×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$2.18 3.11 coins	0.6%	145	153.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$1.83 2.62 coins	0.6%	210	183.7	1.14×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$1.83 2.61 coins	0.6%	179	183.7	0.97×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$1.75 2.5 coins	0.6%	166	183.7	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 100	$1.72 2.46 coins	0.9%	323	306.1	1.06×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$1.54 2.2 coins	0.6%	206	214.3	0.96×
G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$1.50 2.14 coins	0.6%	208	214.3	0.97×
Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$1.48 2.11 coins	0.5%	173	183.7	0.94×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 143	$1.43 2.04 coins	0.5%	232	214.3	1.08×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$1.34 1.91 coins	0.5%	213	214.3	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$1.03 1.47 coins	0.4%	210	214.3	0.98×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$1.02 1.45 coins	0.5%	294	306.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$0.89 1.27 coins	0.3%	194	214.3	0.91×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$0.85 1.21 coins	0.3%	212	214.3	0.99×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$0.85 1.21 coins	0.3%	204	214.3	0.95×
Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$0.78 1.12 coins	0.3%	232	214.3	1.08×
P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.76 1.08 coins	0.4%	305	306.1	1.00×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.74 1.06 coins	0.4%	309	306.1	1.01×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$0.63 0.9 coins	0.2%	231	214.3	1.08×
G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.61 0.87 coins	0.3%	314	306.1	1.03×
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.57 0.82 coins	0.3%	324	306.1	1.06×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.55 0.78 coins	0.3%	281	306.1	0.92×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.52 0.75 coins	0.6%	610	612.2	1.00×
Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.52 0.74 coins	0.3%	298	306.1	0.97×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.51 0.73 coins	0.5%	636	612.2	1.04×
Galil AR \| Signal (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.50 0.71 coins	0.3%	311	306.1	1.02×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.50 0.71 coins	0.3%	326	306.1	1.06×
Galil AR \| Signal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.50 0.71 coins	0.3%	306	306.1	1.00×
Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.48 0.69 coins	0.3%	327	306.1	1.07×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.45 0.65 coins	0.2%	306	306.1	1.00×
USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.43 0.62 coins	0.2%	298	306.1	0.97×
USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.43 0.62 coins	0.2%	295	306.1	0.96×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.43 0.62 coins	0.2%	301	306.1	0.98×
G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.42 0.6 coins	0.2%	299	306.1	0.98×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.42 0.6 coins	0.4%	643	612.2	1.05×
G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$0.40 0.57 coins	0.2%	295	306.1	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.40 0.57 coins	0.2%	305	306.1	1.00×
G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.39 0.55 coins	0.2%	323	306.1	1.06×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$0.38 0.54 coins	0.2%	305	306.1	1.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.29 0.42 coins	0.3%	597	612.2	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.27 0.39 coins	0.3%	602	612.2	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.26 0.37 coins	0.3%	640	612.2	1.05×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.24 0.34 coins	0.3%	638	612.2	1.04×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.24 0.34 coins	0.4%	888	918.4	0.97×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$0.24 0.34 coins	0.4%	872	918.4	0.95×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.23 0.33 coins	0.2%	558	612.2	0.91×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.22 0.32 coins	0.2%	636	612.2	1.04×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.22 0.31 coins	0.2%	624	612.2	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.22 0.31 coins	0.2%	643	612.2	1.05×
Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.21 0.3 coins	0.2%	629	612.2	1.03×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.21 0.3 coins	0.2%	607	612.2	0.99×
Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.21 0.3 coins	0.3%	882	918.4	0.96×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 43	$0.20 0.29 coins	0.3%	696	714.5	0.97×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.17 0.25 coins	0.3%	921	918.4	1.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.17 0.25 coins	0.3%	998	918.4	1.09×
Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.17 0.24 coins	0.3%	928	918.4	1.01×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.15 0.22 coins	0.2%	621	612.2	1.01×
Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.15 0.22 coins	0.2%	908	918.4	0.99×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.15 0.22 coins	0.2%	930	918.4	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.13 0.19 coins	0.2%	850	918.4	0.93×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$2.082.97 coins$7461,065 coins358.6x5d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic$2.092.98 coins$489698 coins234.2x7d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epicDarkpik$2.092.98 coins$489698 coins234.2x8d

AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert$2.082.97 coins$268383 coins129.0x5d

★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert$2.092.98 coins$115165 coins55.37x3d

★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert$2.082.97 coins$115165 coins55.56x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rarePilu bzw.VioLLin csgoroll.com$2.082.97 coins$114163 coins54.88x3d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare$2.082.97 coins$114163 coins54.88x4d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare$2.082.97 coins$114163 coins54.88x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Fubar (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.072.96 coins$3.985.68 coins1.92x3m

Galil AR | Signal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedsi^b^rO$2.072.96 coins$0.500.71 coins0.24x3m

Nova | Wood Fired (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$2.072.96 coins$0.240.34 coins0.11x3m

Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$2.072.96 coins$0.210.3 coins0.10x9m

Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.072.96 coins$0.210.3 coins0.10x9m

USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedCARRITOS MAISTER$2.072.96 coins$0.430.62 coins0.21x9m

Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$2.072.96 coins$0.230.33 coins0.11x9m

USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$2.072.96 coins$0.570.82 coins0.28x13m

M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.072.96 coins$1.021.45 coins0.49x13m

Galil AR | Signal (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$2.072.96 coins$0.500.71 coins0.24x13m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$2.07	90.98%	97
10 Nov, 20:20 UTC	$2.07	90.98%	97
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.07	90.94%	97
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$2.07	90.95%	97
9 Nov, 02:02 UTC	$2.07	91.02%	97
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$2.08	90.79%	97
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$2.08	90.83%	97
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$2.08	90.86%	97
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$2.08	90.90%	97
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$2.08	91.06%	97
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.09	90.76%	97
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC	$2.08	90.98%	97
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC	$2.08	90.98%	97
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$2.08	90.96%	97
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$2.08	91.06%	97
4 Nov, 22:33 UTC	$2.08	91.05%	97
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.08	91.03%	97
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC	$2.09	90.76%	97
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$2.09	90.76%	97

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.0%covert 1.9%rare 0.0%Ancient 0.1%classified 5.9%Legendary 1.4%mil spec 60.9%restricted 23.7%Rare 1.0%violet 1.0%#8847ff 1.0%blue 3.0%best hit $746 (358.6x)