Deagles Only

A case on CSGORoll (pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$57.36

81.95 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $52.15 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.89%

368 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

63.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

88.96%±17.29299 openings

30 days

85.89%±15.63368 openings

since tracking started

85.89%±15.63368 openings

10.0%80.3%150.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	80.29%±69.4	—	odds
7d	299	88.96%±17.3	−0.2σ	odds
30d	368	85.89%±15.6	−0.6σ	odds
All	368	85.89%±15.6	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 368 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 333	$563 804 coins	3.2%	2	1.1	1.81×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$552 788 coins	4.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$430 614 coins	3.3%	2	1.5	1.36×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$400 571 coins	4.6%	1	2.2	0.45×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$378 540 coins	7.2%	0	3.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$334 477 coins	6.4%	4	3.7	1.09×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$170 243 coins	6.5%	5	7.4	0.68×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$167 239 coins	6.4%	7	7.4	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$159 227 coins	3.0%	7	3.7	1.90×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$132 188 coins	12.6%	16	18.4	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$93.80 134 coins	11.3%	30	23.2	1.29×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$84.00 120 coins	8.1%	26	18.4	1.41×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$70.70 101 coins	8.1%	15	22.1	0.68×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$59.44 84.91 coins	6.8%	28	22.1	1.27×
Desert Eagle \| Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$21.61 30.87 coins	2.5%	25	22.1	1.13×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$16.08 22.97 coins	2.2%	22	25.8	0.85×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$15.79 22.56 coins	1.8%	24	22.1	1.09×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 14	$5.03 7.19 coins	0.7%	22	25.8	0.85×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$3.26 4.65 coins	0.4%	21	25.8	0.82×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$1.27 1.82 coins	0.2%	36	36.8	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.60 0.86 coins	0.1%	42	36.8	1.14×
Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.48 0.69 coins	0.1%	33	36.8	0.90×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareDan$56.6080.86 coins$573818 coins10.12x3d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$56.6080.86 coins$573818 coins10.12x4d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$56.6080.86 coins$573818 coins10.12x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$57.3681.95 coins$0.600.86 coins0.01x21h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$57.3681.95 coins$1.271.82 coins0.02x21h

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendarymiami$57.3681.95 coins$5.037.19 coins0.09x21h

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified$57.3681.95 coins$59.4484.91 coins1.04x21h

Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New)weapon · restricted$57.3681.95 coins$93.80134 coins1.64x21h

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$57.3681.95 coins$15.7922.56 coins0.28x21h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$57.3681.95 coins$1.271.82 coins0.02x21h

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified$57.3681.95 coins$84.00120 coins1.46x21h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$57.36	90.91%	22
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$57.37	90.91%	22
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$56.56	90.91%	22
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$56.60	90.91%	22

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrare 0.3%restricted 24.7%covert 4.0%classified 22.0%industrial 12.0%Legendary 7.0%mil spec 30.0%best hit $573 (10.12x)