Dream On
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.57
10.81 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $6.88 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.48%
16.1K openings, odds method
Variance
347.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 833
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $9,856 14,080 coins | 14.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× |
| AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $6,188 8,840 coins | 9.0% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.86× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary | 1 in 1,000 | $1,921 2,745 coins | 27.9% | 13 | 16.1 | 0.81× |
| AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,559 2,227 coins | 22.7% | 19 | 16.1 | 1.18× |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 10,000 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 1.8% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.86× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $346 494 coins | 5.0% | 20 | 16.1 | 1.24× |
| MAC-10 | Palm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 21.0% | $2.37 3.38 coins | 7.2% | 3,397 | 3378.5 | 1.01× |
| P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 21.0% | $1.88 2.68 coins | 5.7% | 3,409 | 3378.5 | 1.01× |
| Five-SeveN | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 21.0% | $1.39 1.99 coins | 4.3% | 3,316 | 3378.5 | 0.98× |
| Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 36.7% | $0.39 0.55 coins | 2.1% | 5,906 | 5899.5 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$7.5710.81 coins$1,9212,745 coins253.9x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$7.5710.81 coins$1,9212,745 coins253.9x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendaryDECOY$7.5710.81 coins$1,9212,745 coins253.9x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$7.5710.81 coins$1,9212,745 coins253.9x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendaryThe other other guy$7.5710.81 coins$1,9212,745 coins253.9x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $7.57 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $7.57 | 90.95% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.59 | 90.90% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.71 | 90.89% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $7.66 | 90.89% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $7.66 | 90.88% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.65 | 90.89% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%legendary 0.1%classified 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%industrial 57.7%consumer 42.0%best hit $9,856 (1,302x)