Dune storm

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$12.00

17.14 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $10.91 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.68%

4,722 openings, odds method

Variance

5.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

112.37%±17.98685 openings

7 days

94.77%±7.354,123 openings

30 days

93.68%±6.874,722 openings

since tracking started

93.68%±6.874,722 openings

86.0%108.5%131.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	685	112.37%±18.0	+2.3σ	odds
7d	4,123	94.77%±7.35	+1.0σ	odds
30d	4,722	93.68%±6.87	+0.8σ	odds
All	4,722	93.68%±6.87	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,722 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$918 1,312 coins	0.8%	1	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$446 637 coins	2.0%	1	2.4	0.42×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$283 404 coins	1.8%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 667	$266 380 coins	3.7%	6	7.1	0.85×
P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 294	$218 312 coins	6.8%	16	16.1	1.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 769	$183 261 coins	2.2%	7	6.1	1.14×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$118 169 coins	10.8%	55	47.2	1.16×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$105 150 coins	4.8%	24	23.6	1.02×
Sticker \| Kaze (Gold) \| Katowice 2019sticker · extraordinary	1 in 57	$76.30 109 coins	12.2%	92	82.6	1.11×
Sticker \| Splyce (Holo) \| MLG Columbus 2016sticker · remarkable	1 in 33	$32.99 47.13 coins	9.1%	141	141.7	1.00×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$30.25 43.22 coins	8.3%	147	141.7	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$20.01 28.59 coins	13.8%	375	354.1	1.06×
Sticker \| Eternal Fire (Gold) \| Copenhagen 2024sticker · extraordinary	15.5%	$6.45 9.21 coins	9.2%	748	731.9	1.02×
Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	16.0%	$3.82 5.45 coins	5.6%	726	755.5	0.96×
Sticker \| Incineration (Holo)sticker · remarkable	16.5%	$2.56 3.66 coins	3.9%	753	779.1	0.97×
R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	16.5%	$2.25 3.22 coins	3.4%	777	779.1	1.00×
XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	18.0%	$0.94 1.34 coins	1.5%	851	850.0	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$12.3017.57 coins$9811,402 coins79.80x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Eternal Fire (Gold) | Copenhagen 2024sticker · extraordinary$12.0017.14 coins$6.459.21 coins0.54x26m

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified$12.0017.14 coins$20.0128.59 coins1.67x26m

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classifiedPOOF$12.0017.14 coins$20.0128.59 coins1.67x26m

Sticker | Eternal Fire (Gold) | Copenhagen 2024sticker · extraordinary$12.0017.14 coins$6.459.21 coins0.54x29m

XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$12.0017.14 coins$0.941.34 coins0.08x29m

Tec-9 | Orange Murano (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialPOOF$12.0017.14 coins$3.825.45 coins0.32x29m

Sticker | Eternal Fire (Gold) | Copenhagen 2024sticker · extraordinary$12.0017.14 coins$6.459.21 coins0.54x32m

XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$12.0017.14 coins$0.941.34 coins0.08x32m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:20 UTC	$12.00	90.90%	17
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$12.00	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$12.03	90.89%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$12.21	90.90%	17
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$12.30	90.90%	17
4 Nov, 22:33 UTC	$12.30	90.93%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$12.31	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.1%extraordinary 17.4%remarkable 19.5%mil spec 19.5%classified 7.5%industrial 16.0%restricted 18.0%best hit $981 (79.80x)