Dynamite

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$14.23

20.33 coins

Advertised RTP

90.89%

EV $12.94 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.99%

3,356 openings, odds method

Variance

37.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

76.79%±64.34348 openings

7 days

78.33%±22.042,949 openings

30 days

78.99%±20.663,356 openings

since tracking started

78.99%±20.663,356 openings

12.0%77.0%142.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	348	76.79%±64.3	−0.4σ	odds
7d	2,949	78.33%±22.0	−1.1σ	odds
30d	3,356	78.99%±20.7	−1.1σ	odds
All	3,356	78.99%±20.7	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,365 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 6,667	$6,650 9,500 coins	7.7%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$1,091 1,559 coins	3.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,111	$396 566 coins	2.8%	4	3.0	1.32×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$286 409 coins	1.3%	1	2.0	0.50×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 667	$265 379 coins	3.1%	3	5.0	0.59×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$113 162 coins	7.0%	32	26.9	1.19×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 65	$77.00 110 coins	9.2%	43	52.2	0.82×
FAMAS \| Meltdown (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$69.60 99.43 coins	1.6%	11	10.1	1.09×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$61.46 87.8 coins	9.5%	73	67.3	1.08×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$36.40 52 coins	16.9%	169	201.9	0.84×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$18.70 26.72 coins	11.6%	270	269.2	1.00×
Sticker \| Gambit Gaming (Foil) \| MLG Columbus 2016sticker · exotic	1 in 12	$12.32 17.6 coins	8.1%	310	286.0	1.08×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$7.62 10.88 coins	5.2%	293	294.4	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	14.5%	$4.45 6.36 coins	5.0%	491	487.9	1.01×
Sticker \| Firestarter (Holo)sticker · Rare	14.6%	$4.00 5.72 coins	4.5%	500	491.0	1.02×
M249 \| Impact Drill (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	10.5%	$1.74 2.49 coins	1.4%	346	353.3	0.98×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	24.2%	$1.18 1.68 coins	2.2%	819	813.0	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$14.2320.33 coins$4.456.36 coins0.31x19m

Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedPOOF$14.2320.33 coins$1.181.68 coins0.08x19m

Sticker | Gambit Gaming (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016sticker · exotic$14.2320.33 coins$12.3217.6 coins0.87x19m

Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$14.2320.33 coins$1.181.68 coins0.08x22m

Sticker | Gambit Gaming (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016sticker · exotic$14.2320.33 coins$12.3217.6 coins0.87x22m

AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$14.2320.33 coins$36.4052 coins2.56x22m

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedPOOF$14.2320.33 coins$18.7026.72 coins1.31x22m

Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$14.2320.33 coins$1.181.68 coins0.08x38m

AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$14.2320.33 coins$36.4052 coins2.56x38m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$14.23	90.89%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$14.26	90.93%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$14.31	90.90%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%classified 24.4%covert 9.1%exotic 8.5%restricted 32.9%Rare 14.6%consumer 10.5%best hit —