Edens Garden
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$37.56
53.65 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $34.14 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.76%
4,077 openings, odds method
Variance
31.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 80
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,077 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$37.9354.19 coins$5,7758,250 coins152.2x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$37.9354.19 coins$5,7758,250 coins152.2x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$37.9354.19 coins$5,7758,250 coins152.2x
Latest dropsnewest first
G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$37.5653.65 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$37.5653.65 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$37.5653.65 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $37.56 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $37.56 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $37.81 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.93 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.2%covert 14.2%extraordinary 3.6%classified 0.6%restricted 1.4%consumer 80.0%best hit $5,775 (152.2x)