Extraterrestrial

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$78.81

113 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $71.64 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.91%

2,411 openings, odds method

Variance

7.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.08%±32.35288 openings

7 days

88.15%±14.091,510 openings

30 days

85.91%±11.132,411 openings

since tracking started

85.91%±11.132,411 openings

60.0%93.0%126.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	288	93.08%±32.3	+0.1σ	odds
7d	1,510	88.15%±14.1	−0.4σ	odds
30d	2,411	85.91%±11.1	−0.9σ	odds
All	2,411	85.91%±11.1	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,411 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 100,000	$7,000 10,000 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 20,000	$5,156 7,365 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 500	$3,136 4,480 coins	8.8%	2	4.8	0.41×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 2,000	$2,615 3,735 coins	1.8%	2	1.2	1.66×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 200	$902 1,288 coins	6.3%	14	12.1	1.16×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$754 1,077 coins	21.0%	45	48.2	0.93×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$617 882 coins	8.6%	25	24.1	1.04×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 50	$390 557 coins	10.9%	42	48.2	0.87×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$293 419 coins	12.3%	64	72.3	0.88×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 31	$210 300 coins	9.5%	71	78.2	0.91×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 13	$182 260 coins	20.3%	219	192.9	1.14×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	40.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	986	964.4	1.02×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	40.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	941	964.4	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high$79.44113 coins$3,1434,490 coins39.57x4d

Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · highm1chi$78.81113 coins$3,1364,480 coins39.79x2d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$78.81113 coins$2,6153,735 coins33.18x2d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$79.44113 coins$2,6153,735 coins32.91x8d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$79.44113 coins$9401,343 coins11.83x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$79.44113 coins$9401,343 coins11.83x4d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3m1chi$79.44113 coins$9401,343 coins11.83x7d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$79.44113 coins$9401,343 coins11.83x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$78.81113 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$78.81113 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4h

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$78.81113 coins$7541,077 coins9.57x4h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$78.81113 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x8h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$78.81113 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x8h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$78.81113 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x8h

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$78.81113 coins$210300 coins2.66x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$78.81	90.91%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$79.44	90.91%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 19.8%contraband 0.0%high 0.2%consumer 80.0%best hit $3,143 (39.57x)